MANKATO, Minn. — Last fall, the voters of southern Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District picked Donald Trump by a whopping 15 percentage points over Hillary Clinton. The Republican running for the seat, Jim Hagedorn, lost by less than a percentage point.

Now with the winner, six-term Democrat Congressman Tim Walz of Mankato, running for governor in 2018, Republicans from Washington, D.C., to the local precincts see a prime opportunity to re-take a seat they haven’t owned since 2004.

“Republicans are definitely expecting to win,” said Jeremy Munson, chairman of the 1^st District Republicans. “This will be one of the races that will bring national attention to our district.”

According to one top political election analysis, the Cook Political Report, southern Minnesota’s 1^st District is the second-most Republican congressional district in the country now represented by a Democrat.

That rating and the rural nature of the district – it runs along Minnesota’s southern border of farmland and small towns – makes it a bellwether district for Trump’s popularity at the midway point of his presidential term.

The National Republican Congressional Committee included the district in its 36-seat list of Democratic congressional targets in next year’s election.

Democrats concede they have a fight ahead of them but say they’re fired up to deal Trump a defeat.

“I would agree this district is a close one,” said Jason Teiken, the local Democratic Farm Labor Party chairman. He said Trump’s large margin of victory in 2016 is cause for concern, but added that Walz’s six consecutive victories show a moderate Democrat is capable of keeping the seat.

Herb Kroon, chair of the Nicollet County DFL, said the enthusiasm from his party brings to mind the 2006 election, when anti-Bush sentiment helped Walz, a former high school teacher, capture the 1^st District seat in Congress. But Democrats need a message beyond opposition to Trump, he said.

“We need to say, ‘This is what we stand for’ and ‘This is who we are,’” Kroon said.

There are five Democrats lined up to replace Walz: Former state Sen. Vicki Jensen of Owatonna, John Austinson of Byron, Johnny Akzam of Rochester, Colin Minehart of Albert Lea and Dan Feehan of North Mankato.

Hagedorn, who barely lost to Walz last year, is considered the Republican front runner to make another try at capturing the 1^st District seat. This time he would not face an incumbent Democrat and he has already raised $221,000 in the first quarter of 2017, or 63 percent of what he spent during the 2016 campaign.

Hagedorn said he would have won last fall’s race with a better-funded campaign.

“If I had another $50,000 to $100,000 to pound on broadcast TV, I think we could’ve easily turned 61 votes per county,” he said. In the 21-county district, flipping 1,281 Walz votes would have won him the race.

Details for this story were provided by the Mankato, Minnesota Free Press.