These past few years have been tough for baseball. First the sport was upended by the COVID-19 pandemic, then it dealt with the financial fallout of the shortened 2020 season, and last year the offseason was overshadowed by labor strife and eventually a lockout the shut down the sport for 99 days.

Now, finally, we’re heading into a somewhat normal offseason. That means we can hopefully expect a roaring Hot Stove and a much more enjoyable form of uncertainty.

Where will baseball’s biggest stars land? Who has a shot at the top free agents? These are the kind of questions we should be asking, not depressing existential queries like “will there be a season next year?”

So as free agency ramps up, here’s our best guess as to where some of the top players on the market will wind up, as well as what kind of deal it might take to land them:

Aaron Judge, OF: The New York Yankees slugger bet on himself this past April when he turned down the club’s seven-year, $213.5 million extension offer. After delivering a historic MVP season in which he broke the American League home run record and nearly won the Triple Crown, that bet is about to pay off big. Judge is sure to sign for more than $300 million, and while it’s not a sure thing he’ll return to New York, the widespread industry expectation is that he and the Yankees will work out a deal.

Prediction: New York Yankees, eight years, $320 million.

Carlos Correa, SS: The top free agent on last offseason’s market, Correa wound up taking a short-term, high-dollar deal with Minnesota that allowed him the opportunity to opt out and test free agency again. Without a qualifying offer attached to him like last year he might have a better chance of landing that long-term mega deal now, and $300 million is absolutely within the realm of possibility. The Twins have indicated they’d love to keep him around, and we can’t rule it out after they shocked the world last year by landing him in the first place, but the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants both also need a shortstop and have much greater resources to work with. My money is on the Giants, assuming they strike out on bringing Judge home to the Bay Area.

Prediction: San Francisco Giants, 10 years, $320 million.

Trea Turner, SS: Turner is an elite talent who can hit for average and power, deliver game-breaking speed and and boasts top-line athleticism in the infield, making him perfectly suited for the faster, more athletic game we should see upon implementation of MLB’s new pace of play rules. The Dodgers can’t be ruled out to retain their star shortstop but Turner is rumored to prefer playing on the East Coast. If Philadelphia Phillies baseball boss Dave Dombrowski doesn’t bring in his old Red Sox stalwart Xander Bogaerts, Turner makes perfect sense for the World Series runner-ups.

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies, eight years, $272 million.

Xander Bogaerts, SS: The question of whether or not Bogaerts will return to Boston has hung over the franchise all season, and the prevailing sentiment among fans and outside observers alike is that he’s a goner. Personally, I’m not so sure. Bogaerts has consistently expressed his desire to stay and already signed a team-friendly deal once before, and the club has consistently called re-signing him their top priority. He’s obviously going to get his money, and Boston is going to have to make a serious offer to keep him, but somehow I think the two sides will work something out.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox, seven years, $203 million.

Dansby Swanson, SS: The last of the Big Four shortstops on this year’s market, Swanson is likely a short rung below his peers but has still positioned himself for a nice payday. His situation is somewhat unique though, because unlike the Dodgers, Twins and Red Sox, the Braves have a viable long-term replacement in Vaughn Grissom already on the roster. If that makes him more likely to leave, then he could be a prime pickup for the St. Louis Cardinals, who could use a shortstop so Tommy Edman can shift to second full-time, and who might also prefer not to top the $200 million plateau.

Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals, seven years, $154 million.

Jacob deGrom, RHP: DeGrom presents a fascinating conundrum for MLB front offices. On one hand, he is deceptively old at 34 and has missed significant time due to injury over the past two seasons. On the other hand, when deGrom is healthy he’s the most dominant pitcher baseball has seen since Pedro Martinez and might be the most impactful addition an aspiring contender could make short of Judge. The risk he presents is real, but one way or another deGrom is going to get paid, and the New York Mets have the deep pockets to ensure their longtime ace remains in Queens for the rest of his career.

Prediction: New York Mets, three years, $132 million.

Carlos Rodon, RHP: Having proven himself capable of handling a full season’s workload, Rodon is in line for a big long-term deal. The soon-to-be 30-year-old is now a two-time All-Star who has posted a 2.67 ERA over his last 310.2 innings dating back to 2021 and will be a prized target for clubs trying to take their rotation to the next level. That perfectly describes the Texas Rangers, who have already invested nearly half a billion dollars in their infield and now need pitching to help push them back into playoff contention.

Prediction: Texas Rangers, five years, $130 million.

Justin Verlander, RHP: Much like deGrom, Verlander is a legitimate ace who remains among baseball’s most dominant pitchers even well past his prime years. Verlander just won the AL Cy Young Award unanimously despite being 39 and a year removed from Tommy John surgery, and there’s no reason to expect a major drop off is imminent. He’ll most likely land a deal for either two or three years, and while he’s thrived in Houston the Dodgers feel like the best fit given they just lost Tyler Anderson to the Angels and will be without ace Walker Buehler next season due to Tommy John surgery.

Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers, three years, $120 million.

Brandon Nimmo, OF: Though Judge is the clear top option on the free agent market, Nimmo is pretty solid No. 2 among outfielders. The 29-year-old has been among the most productive all-around outfielders in the game over the past three years and boasts excellent on-base skills. He seems like a perfect fit for the Boston Red Sox, who badly need a boost in their outfield. The question is whether the Red Sox will be willing to outbid the New York Mets, who have already indicated they’d like to keep Nimmo around.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox, five years, $120 million.

Chris Bassitt, RHP: Bassitt probably isn’t quite at the level of some of the other top free agent starters, he’s more of a No. 2 or 3 guy than an ace, but he’s still a proven performer who could make a huge difference in any club’s starting rotation. He’s likely an ideal fit for a mid-to-small market club looking to push itself into the playoff picture, and he’d do wonders for a club like Minnesota, who is probably at least a starter or two away as it stands now.

Prediction: Minnesota Twins, four years, $82 million.

Email: mcerullo@northofboston.com. Twitter: @MacCerullo.