For Big 12, doomsday scenarios still looms

Published 2:30 pm Wednesday, November 15, 2017

By elevating Oklahoma only one spot in the College Football Playoff rankings, the selection committee sent a clear message that, at least for this week, it doesn’t think too highly of a conference that has been both good and deep this season.

But when it comes to reaching the four-team playoff, the Big 12, and specifically Oklahoma, should be fine as long as the Sooners win out. Right?

If Oklahoma, currently ranked fourth in the CFP rankings, win its final two regular season games and the Big 12 title game, the Sooners should — should — reach the playoff.

But given the subjective nature of the selection process and OU’s precarious position at No. 4, there is reason for alarm. Just consider a couple potential scenarios that should make Oklahoma fans a bit uneasy before the final rankings are unveiled Dec. 3.

If Alabama wins the SEC title game, it gets one spot. If Clemson captures the ACC crown, it gets another. But what if Miami suffers its lone defeat — a narrow defeat — at the hands of Clemson in the ACC championship? Could the Hurricanes possibly still get in? The committee clearly placed high value in Miami’s demolition of Notre Dame over the weekend.

Then, what if the last slot boils down to a decision between an unbeaten Wisconsin team that beats Ohio State in the Big Ten title game and a once-beaten Oklahoma team that beat Ohio State in its stadium in September?

The Sooners, who already have three victories over top 13 teams in the rankings, should still earn the berth. But given the unpredictable nature of the committee, fans would be sweating it out until they see the word Oklahoma during the television unveiling. Would the committee really leave out an unbeaten Big Ten champ?

Another scenario also could create anxious moments for the Big 12. If Alabama suffers its only defeat — a narrow defeat — to Auburn in the Iron Bowl or to Georgia in the SEC championship, it’s possible the once-beaten Crimson Tide could get in along with the SEC champion.

That would leave two open slots: One to the ACC champion and then, presumably, one more to either Oklahoma or Wisconsin. In that case, again, Oklahoma will have played the tougher schedule, but Wisconsin could potentially get a boost by beating Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.

And again, OU should still get chosen. But it’s hard to feel it’s a guarantee considering the committee did not appear to put the appropriate amount of weight in the Sooners’ recent impressive victories over Oklahoma State and TCU.

Clemson, which has just one victory against top 15 CFP ranked teams, surprisingly is at No. 2 in the rankings despite a loss to a Syracuse team that has a 4-6 record. The committee appears to be deemphasizing that loss because quarterback Kelly Bryant was injured during the game.

“The selection committee continues to factor in the injury to the quarterback in the Clemson game and the fact that he returned their next game and returned at full speed,” selection committee chairman Kirby Hocutt said. “That continues to be a factor in our discussions of Clemson.”

Conversely, Oklahoma has been penalized — and Hocutt acknowledged as much — for its home loss to an Iowa State team that is just a few weeks removed from being the toast of college football.

The Big 12 has made strides this year. It has depth, with half of the 10-team league flirting with the top 25 for much of the middle portion of the season. It has one signature non-conference victory, as well, with the Sooners’ win at Ohio State standing out.

And still, even with the prospect of once-beaten Oklahoma winning out, still there remains potential doomsday scenarios for the league. After Tuesday’s rankings were unveiled, the league can’t assume anything.