Big 12’s Bowlsby pins playoff hopes on return of conference title game

Published 5:06 pm Monday, July 17, 2017

FRISCO, Texas — Bob Bowlsby spent much of his state of the Big 12 address Monday trumpeting why he is optimistic that the return of a conference title game may yield better representation for the league in the College Football Playoff.

The Big 12 commissioner spoke of it being the culmination of a true round-robin regular season, a critical so-called 13th data point on a team’s resume. He talked about it being the nation’s only title game that ensures a matchup of the top two teams. And he underscored the game’s heightened visibility – to be played on the grand stage of AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

All true points.

But this is also true: the presence of a title game does not guarantee that the league will reverse the trend of being excluded from the four-team playoff in two of the first three years of the model’s existence. Even with adding the conference championship, the Big 12’s path to the playoffs remains fraught with challenges.

Most glaringly, the Big 12 must fare much better in non-league play to increase the likelihood that its title game matches teams with playoff-worthy resumes. It’s lost on no one that Oklahoma – which lost two non-league games last season – did not reach the CFP despite becoming the first Big 12 team since 2009 to finish unbeaten in conference play. As a whole, no team from the league last season beat a nonconference team that finished in the top 25.

The Big 12 passed legislation in 2015 requiring its teams to schedule at least one Power 5 team in non-conference play. Fans – and the CFP selection committee — will see the impact of that this fall. A slate of several important matchups includes Texas at Southern California on Sept. 16; Oklahoma at Ohio State on Sept 9; Oklahoma State at Pittsburgh on Sept. 16; West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech on Sept. 2 in Landover, Maryland; TCU at Arkansas on Sept. 9 and Baylor at Duke on Sept. 16.

Those could be formidable challenges, especially with none of those Big 12 teams playing those games at home.

“We intentionally wanted to strengthen it,” Bowlsby told CNHI Sports Oklahoma inside The Ford Center at The Star following his press conference. “Now you’ve got to go win them. Scheduling them is easy. Winning them is hard.”

Another scenario the Big 12 needs to confront is that its competitive balance could backfire. Bowlsby believes that “from top to bottom we are the best in the country in terms of balance.” If true, it sets up a scenario where the second-best team beating the best Big 12 team in the title game could result in the league being left out of the CFP picture again.

Still, Bowlsby is committed to the league’s approach, saying that matching up the two best teams “gives us the best springboard” to ultimately emerge with a playoff berth.

Over the past year, Bowlsby added, the selection committee’s message to the Big 12 was that a title game would bolster the league’s chances of inclusion in the CFP. So the league added one.

But it’s clear there is no formula that guarantees a berth. Gary Patterson, the TCU coach, suggested that the committee sends mixed messages. He said he was not happy that Ohio State received a berth in the CFP without playing in the Big Ten title game.

“I was told that you had to play a championship game to play an extra game to get into that game,” Patterson said, “and then Ohio State got into the game without playing in their Big Ten championship game. I think there should have been a team from the Big 12 that should have been in the playoffs two out of the last three years.”

On the field, the Big 12’s offensive-heavy league will feature a parade of experienced quarterbacks and two new coaches stewarding the league’s most prominent programs – Texas and Oklahoma. The Sooners, the preseason favorites, have designs on reaching the CFP even as 33-year-old Lincoln Riley succeeds venerable Bob Stoops. Oklahoma State is a trendy pick to challenge for a playoff berth; the ageless Bill Snyder, 77, has the ingredients to lift Kansas State to the top tier; and renewed optimism exists at Texas with the start of the Tom Herman era. 

Storylines abound. What’s more, the conference title game is expected to bring each school $2 to $3 million in additional revenue. But Bowlsby made clear that the impetus to bring back the title game, which was last played in 2010, wasn’t financial. It was a move to maximize the league’s chances of landing a team in the CFP.

And even with its return, the CFP is still no guarantee.

“We didn’t make the College Football Playoff,” Bowlsby said. “Obviously, that’s the coin of the realm at this point.”