AUSTIN — Texas isn’t a state where the GOP expects trouble, but Donald Trump is losing ground with a key group here and in other traditionally red states — among white, college-educated women. 

Results of a poll released this week by the Washington Post and SurveyMonkey found Democrat Hillary Clinton leading her Republican rival in support among those voters in 38 states — by double-digits in 37.

The study — which interviewed at least 100 white, college educated women in each of 49 states — exposed what the Post called an “unprecedented deficit for a Republican” among that demographic.

In Texas, those voters are typically Republican. But this year Trump’s support among them is under 40 percent, according to the survey conducted from Aug. 9 to Sept. 1.

That portends no good for the GOP contender with a history of making disparaging remarks about women, as the presidential contest heads into the debates and toward the Nov. 8 general election. 

“He tends to let his mouth run away from him sometimes,” said Barbara Upham, GOP chairwoman in Palo Pinto County. “I hope his advisers just keep him on message.”

Upham, a graduate of the University of Texas at Arlington, said she plans to vote for Trump. She said his unflattering remarks about some women — often based on their looks — isn’t a factor.

But others are swayed by Trump’s calling Rosie O’Donnell a “pig,” insulting the appearance of former GOP rival Carly Fiorina, and saying that a female attorney was “disgusting” when she needed to breast-feed her infant during a meeting.

“They don’t like the tone,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston. “There seems to be a pattern of negative interaction with powerful women.“ 

To boost support among women, Trump’s campaign “needs to take the public’s mind in another direction,” Rottinghaus said.

At his most effective, Trump focuses on attacking a rigged economy, a broken political system in Washington and Clinton’s alleged corruption, he said. 

Kelly Dittmar, a scholar at the Center for American Women and Politics, said that while Trump is getting more support among white men without college degrees compared to GOP nominee Mitt Romney four years ago, Trump polls much worse among college-educated white women.

Trump should be doing better than Romney did in that category, said Dittmar, who is also an assistant professor at Rutgers University-Camden. That’s especially critical since they vote in greater numbers.

Rottinghaus agreed that Trump’s “pathway is highly limited” if he can’t win over more college-educated women. “Trump’s only hope is to repeat Romney’s majority,” he said.

Seth McKee, who teaches political science at Texas Tech University, is dubious about the polls, which sampled more than 5,000 people in Texas. They showed Clinton ahead of Trump by 1 percent in Texas in a two-person race.

“If you told me on Election Day that Hillary Clinton carried Texas, I’d faint,” he said.

But McKee’s not doubting Trump’s lack of support among women.

“As for as women, he lacks tact. He’s very abrasive,” McKee said. “It’s a lot more off-putting to women than to men.”

Nonetheless, Upham said she feels good about Trump and the GOP’s chances in her neck of the woods, west of Fort Worth.  

“We’ve got our little headquarters open,” she said. “We seem to have a lot of support here in Palo Pinto County.”

McKee said upcoming debates will give voters — men and women — an opportunity to compare and contrast.  

“You’re going to see a woman who can talk specifics,” he said. “(Trump) is not going to go back and become a policy wonk.”

“He’s a salesman,” he said. “He doesn’t know the details of the product he’s selling.”

John Austin covers the Texas Statehouse for CNHI’s newspapers and websites. Reach him at jaustin@cnhi.com.